Mulberry market seem stable this year comparing to last year with high prices (mostly due to speculations). The main risk is this year there is a big amount of stocks in suppliers warehouse from last crop and they are being traded as a new crop product – which can be a big quality risk especially for organic dried mulberries.

After last year’s big disaster (Please see Dried Fruits and Nuts Market Report April 2014), 2015 crop dried apricot harvest is better in general but still with problems. Frost damage and poor weather conditions affected some regions and it is said that frost harmed 40% of total apricot yields. We are forecasting total crop between 55000 to 65000 tons.

Organic dried apricots availability will be less than 50% of 2013 crop as many of the producers did not pay for certification costs after the disaster last year. There is a big price differences between suppliers of organic dried apricots, almost 600-700$ / ton, few suppliers trying to sell Natural dried apricots as organic by certifying them – which are obviously not really organic.

Smaller than No:4 apricots will be very hard to find which is causing higher prices on small sizes, diced apricots and industrial quality. Average crop size is No:2.

Prices are staying higher than expected and buyers moving slow – we think that high prices are the reason of damage and also farmers expectations (they are trying to catch 2014 crop price levels) and will drop starting late September but will not see 2013 crop levels anyway. We also hear that crop is not so good at Uzbekistan and Tajikistan which can prevent us to see lower prices in Turkey.

Dried Figs 2015 harvest quantity forecasted as 74,505 tones (+/- 5%) by Crop Estimation Committee. Last year the amount was 69,731 tones. Aegean Dried Fruit Exporters Association declared first shipment date of 2015 crop dried figs as October 2, 2015.

• The proportion of the fruit on the trees is very high. There are many fruits from the branches, which results the higher fruit contact and leads to damage.
• Wind from the sea and rain in August meant that individual fruits burst open and damaged about 15%. Individual hail damage can also be found in the fruits.
• The harvest also suffers from “Endosepsis” – this means that the fruit rotting inside.
• Fortunately there are not any rust disease or red spider problems this year.
• Despite the good harvest, good quality product which is suitable for drying and packaging seem to be low – particularly at the beginning of the season with the first shipments. 
• Farmers are expecting the 2014 crop prices and trying to sell raw materials at high rates – we expect prices to decline on mid-October.

After seeing record high prices for hazelnuts last year due to big frost damage and 208,000 tons of total hazelnut exports (by the end of July 2015), producers are happy with the quality and amount this year. This year’s production forecasts are currently mixed, declared between 550,000 tons to 700,000 tons by authorities.

Turkish hazelnut prices slightly dropped since 2 weeks and currently stable due to weak Turkish Lira and good weather conditions in the Black Sea region. We do not expect fluctuations this year – maybe a little lower prices on conventional hazelnuts after a month.

Istanbul Exporters Union opened new hazelnut season with a ceremony on September 1 at Akcakoca / Turkey, important faces from business world attended to celebration.

The extreme cold weather (below -12 celsius degree) damaged vineyards especially between Alasehir to Denizli, vineyards are dead from cold and need to be replaced for the following years. This region was covering fresh grape needs of alcohol industry (mostly Raki) with more than 250,000 Tones but this year they will be able to cover maximum 30,000 tones. So alcohol industry is shifting demand to the grape drying regions. Domestic demand for fresh grape is also very strong in Turkey.

Briefly, the crop is very short and demand is big. Importers are mostly waiting in silence, trying to collect their previously made contracts with very low prices. Most of them comparing this season to 2013 crop, while prices increased too much at the beginning and then dropped sharply. This year situation is actually different, prices are not that high (it reached 2900 usd / ton at that time) and there was a good crop at US and a big carry over. This year USA prices are still higher, Iran is shorter around 15% and there are not any other origins to substitute.

We think prices should not increase too much but will not see 2014 crops prices. It is hard for buyers to accept 2300 – 2500 USD / ton prices after 1600 USD / ton prices of last crop, but eventually market will get used to it.

At least quality is very good, color is light and berries are a lot bigger. Thompsons availability will be much lower as growers do not want to risk their products by drying longer.

As the same statements for Dried Apricots also apply for Apricot Kernel market, suppliers are in a rush to fulfill their stocks and get whatever they can and it keeps prices %40 higher than 2013 crop, especially for organic apricot kernels. Organic apricot kernels and natural apricot kernels (without sulphur) are harder to find and in general 2015 crop apricot kernels keep the same price levels with 2014 crop prices.