The extreme cold weather (below -12 celsius degree) damaged vineyards especially between Alasehir to Denizli, vineyards are dead from cold and need to be replaced for the following years. This region was covering fresh grape needs of alcohol industry (mostly Raki) with more than 250,000 Tones but this year they will be able to cover maximum 30,000 tones. So alcohol industry is shifting demand to the grape drying regions. Domestic demand for fresh grape is also very strong in Turkey.
Briefly, the crop is very short and demand is big. Importers are mostly waiting in silence, trying to collect their previously made contracts with very low prices. Most of them comparing this season to 2013 crop, while prices increased too much at the beginning and then dropped sharply. This year situation is actually different, prices are not that high (it reached 2900 usd / ton at that time) and there was a good crop at US and a big carry over. This year USA prices are still higher, Iran is shorter around 15% and there are not any other origins to substitute.
We think prices should not increase too much but will not see 2014 crops prices. It is hard for buyers to accept 2300 – 2500 USD / ton prices after 1600 USD / ton prices of last crop, but eventually market will get used to it.
At least quality is very good, color is light and berries are a lot bigger. Thompsons availability will be much lower as growers do not want to risk their products by drying longer.