As the 36th World Nut and Dried Fruit Congress in Chennai (India) behind us, we are back to business. It was a great opportunity to meet people and share ideas about new developments in the industry, despite the very hot weather. Next INC Congress will take place at Sevilla / Spain on May 2018.
INC Congress Opening – Chennai India 2017
Please find brief market updates for Hazelnuts, Cashews, Brazil Nuts, Almonds and Dried Apricots below. BATA FOOD will continue to publish latest dried fruits and nuts industry news and our comments at our blog.
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New crop forecast for Turkish Hazelnuts announced at INC Congress – Chennai as 670,000 tons (inshell hazelnuts) but there are different views so actually crop size is very open to speculations. Istanbul Exporters Association estimated crop size as 592,000 tons where Black Sea Exporters Association estimated 702,000 tons.
We think real crop size is closer to 700,000 tons and low crop predictions are mostly to protect farmers (to prevent prices to come off).
TMO will continue to guarantee purchasing prices (10.00 TL/kg for Levant quality inshell hazelnuts) till the end of 2016 crop but quantities they buy is really low around 450-500 tons since late April.
Some companies started offers for new crop around 7-8% higher than current offers, we think prices can go down a little but we’ll have a better idea once TMO announce their new crop purchasing prices.
Almond market was calm with a low demand during the May. The Almond Board of California published May Almond Position report last week. Shipments are down 4.1% on May 2017 compared to May 2016 and Year to Date shipments are 18% up as 1.769 Billion pounds. Shippers at California already sold 7-8% of new crop, which is a little low as many of the buyers are waiting for prices to come off more with a big crop expectation. Probably we will see over 400 million lbs carry over which will make the total supply for next year big enough to pressure prices down.
Subjective estimate was published last month as 2.20 Billion pounds, but industry experts expecting figures around 2.3 Billion pounds. We will have a more accurate idea about crop size once The Objective Almond Crop Estimate published during the first week of July.
New almond crop is developing nice, harvest may delay 7-10 days due to cooler weather in the past few days.
Prices stopped increasing and demand also settled down for Whole Cashews. Prices at India is still at same levels as there is a big demand in local market anyway, but we see cheaper prices at Vietnam export offers (local sales in Vietnam is only 5%).
Supply for W240 and W320 is okay but industrial grades such as SW, LBW, DW have low availability connected to short Vietnamese RCN supply and these grades are mostly being sold to China. We can expect slightly lower levels on July – August for Whole Cashew grades but we do not expect a sharp decline.
Brazil Nut market is still very difficult and won’t get any better until new crop. INC announced 2017 crop for Brazil Nuts as 15000 MT – 45% lower than last year. There are few offers in the market and mainly from traders, not origin. Prices did not reach expected 10.00 USD/lb levels as market reacted and some of the buyers already removed Brazil Nuts from their assortments so demand is relatively low. Still, buyers in Europe and USA using Brazil Nuts as a main ingredient in their products trying to cover their needs as much as they can. You can have a better idea about the current situation at B0livia at the video below.
We are offering Brazil Nuts directly from reliable packers at origin or spot in EU, so feel free to get in touch with us to check prices and availabilities.
2017 crop forecast for Turkish Dried Apricots announced as 142,260 tons by Turkish authorities on June 6, we think actual crop will be at least 20% bigger. Organic and Natural Apricots availability will be lower and prices will be firm as many of the farmers will sulphur their apricot stocks to have an option to swap for next year.
As mentioned earlier, large sizes will be limited and price difference with medium and small sizes will be high. For sizes smaller than #4 and industrial grades we expect market will open with a low prices and it is a good idea to stay on hold for now.
On June 8th, EU authorities announced that control frequency for dried apricots for sulphites will be increased from 10% to 20% so shippers will have to be more careful about the sulphite levels.