California’s 2019 almond production is forecast at 2.20 billion pounds, down 12.0 percent from May’s subjective forecast and down 3.5 percent from last year’s crop.
The forecast is based on 1.17 million bearing acres. Production for the Nonpareil variety is forecast at 880 million pounds, down 1.3 percent from last year’s deliveries. The Nonpareil variety represents 40 percent of California’s total almond production.
NASS reported several reasons for the lower crop;
The 2019 almond crop experienced unusual weather. Significant rainfall during the bloom hindered pollination. Strong winds were reported to have damaged trees and knocked off some nuts. Instances of rain persisted through April and May, prompting concerns about disease pressure and warranting extra fungal applications. Cooler than average temperatures have continued throughout the growing season and the crop development is about a week behind last year.
Expectation in the industry was Objective Estimate to be at least 2.5 billion pounds and now with this low forecast, it won’t be a surprise to see prices to firm up and market will be tight and turbulent until more is known.
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Almonds product page
NASS 2019 California Almond Objective Measurement Report (pdf)